Simulation of wheat yield using CERES-Wheat under rainfed and supplemental irrigation conditions in a semi-arid environment

Wheat-fallow rotation is the major land-use system in rainfed cropping of Pakistan. Crop production systems often jeopardized due to scare and erratic seasonal patterns rainfall. Climate change further threatening extent productivity agriculture Climatic risk reduction strategies such as supplemental irrigation (SI) can assist sustaining agriculture. However, little has been done investigate potential SI Pakistan despite recent water resource developments regions country. For this purpose, a four-year (2010–2014) study was conducted assess wheat yield under using crop modeling approach. Calibrated CERES-Wheat evaluated for its ability simulate soil moisture dynamics, productivity, canopy growth, in-season biomass, phenology, grain yield, biomass at harvest based on balance. Results showed good excellent performance during evaluation. example, combined values content between different layers, root zone moisture, evapotranspiration, cover NRMSE ranging from 13%–89%, 5–11%, 2–17%, 12–26%, 13–22%, respectively. The rainfall ranged 18%, 16%, 17%, 6%, model also applied determine favorable management practices (appropriate planting dates 15 October December 15-day intervals 50 mm either or 30 days after planting) their determination actual field conditions laborious. Simulations best combination date suggested that higher be achieved with November planting.